TRUE – ATMOSPHERIC STRESS INDICATOR (ASI) Prediction of heatwaves by the spectral scaling law – Validation on five historical waves and operational protocol

Heatwaves are extreme climatic phenomena whose forecasting remains uncertain, particularly regarding their duration and intensity. Classical numerical models, based on the continuous fractioning of the atmosphere into infinitely small cells, struggle to capture tipping points and feedback loops. The TRUE framework (Théorie Redistributive Universelle Évolutive — Evolutionary Universal Redistributive Theory) offers an alternative: reading the climate system as an energy accumulation field (akin to a generalized entropy) whose dynamics are governed by the universal invariant \gamma_0 = 0.13648 . In this approach, fractioning is not infinite: it obeys a minimal discretization step, enabling the emergence of scaling laws. We define an Atmospheric Stress Indicator (ASI), the ratio between accumulated thermal energy and the system's dissipation capacity. The spectral scaling law R_{\text{raw}}(\tau) = \tau \cdot \gamma_0 predicts that a heatwave is triggered when the ASI crosses a critical threshold. We validate this prediction on five historical heatwaves (2003, 2019, 2022, and the two waves of 2026), with deviations below 20%. An operational protocol is proposed to detect heatwave lockdown in real time and anticipate their end. A prediction is formulated for the wave announced from July 29, 2026.