The Riparian Squeeze: Decadal Fragmentation Dynamics and the Paradox of Community-Based Ecotourism in the Ledok Amprong Corridor, East Java, Indonesia

Tropical riparian ecosystems are among the most threatened biomes on Earth, yet decade-scale, spatially explicit documentation of vegetation loss and landscape fragmentation in community-based ecotourism corridors remains scarce. This study investigates whether agricultural intensification associated with ecotourism development has driven measurable vegetation decline and landscape fragmentation in the Ledok Amprong riparian corridor (Poncokusumo District, Malang Regency, East Java; 8.21 ha, 800–900 m a.s.l.), a mixed-canopy riparian system dominated by Ficus benjamina, Albizia chinensis, and bamboo (Phyllostachys spp.) interspersed with smallholder coffee (Coffea canephora) agroforestry, over the period 2015–2024. We applied multi-temporal Sentinel-2 (10 m) imagery, NDVI analysis, supervised Maximum-Likelihood classification (Overall Accuracy: 89.75%, Kappa: 0.86), and FRAGSTATS-derived landscape metrics to quantify vegetation dynamics and land cover transition. Results show that agricultural land expanded by 157.51% (1.14 to 2.93 ha), while vegetation cover declined by 28.45% (6.27 to 4.49 ha). A strong negative correlation between agricultural expansion and vegetation loss (r = −0.96, p < 0.001) confirmed agriculture as the primary driver of ecosystem degradation. Landscape fragmentation intensified markedly: patch density increased by 49.6%, the connectivity index declined by 23.5%, and the fragmentation index increased by 54.3%. These findings establish the first quantitative, decade-scale spatiotemporal baseline for this ecotourism corridor and demonstrate that community-based ecotourism development, without adequate spatial governance, accelerates rather than mitigates riparian degradation—a paradox with broad implications for tropical riparian conservation governance worldwide. Evidence-based management recommendations include 10–30 m dynamic buffer zones, a 2.5 ha targeted restoration programme, and a Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) mechanism, offering a transferable framework for sustainable riparian ecotourism management across rapidly urbanizing tropical watersheds.