Two Decades of Embodied Carbon in MENA’s Construction Sector: Regional Insights and Policy Implications

Abstract The construction sector is a major contributor to global <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C upper O 2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> emissions, yet embodied emissions in construction supply chains remain poorly quantified in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where hydrocarbon-based growth, rapid urbanization, and recurrent reconstruction have created one of the world’s most dynamic construction markets. This study develops a regionally disaggregated, trade-adjusted, consumption-based assessment of embodied carbon associated with construction final demand and upstream supply chains across 23 MENA economies (2000–2021). An environmentally extended multiregional input–output model based on the Eora26 database is combined with international <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C upper O 2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> inventories to trace construction-related embodied emissions through domestic production and global supply chains. The framework separates domestic, intra-MENA, and extra-MENA embodied imports; quantifies supplier concentration (Herfindahl–Hirschman index, three- and five-supplier concentration ratios); and applies segmented-regression breakpoint analysis to relate emissions trajectories to macroeconomic, conflict, and sanctions episodes. Results show embodied construction emissions increased from 88.8 to 232.1 Mt <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C upper O 2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> (2000–2021), totaling 3,498 Mt <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C upper O 2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> cumulatively. Six system-shaper economies (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, UAE, Algeria, Egypt) account for about 70% of the total, while import-dependent economies (e.g., Kuwait, Israel) derive over half their construction footprint from imports. Construction materials and energy and water dominate the embodied footprint, with several countries exhibiting high carbon intensity per unit of construction output. Supplier portfolios are often highly concentrated, three to five partners provide most imported embodied <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C upper O 2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> , exposing MENA construction to external decarbonization and carbon-border policies. The analysis establishes an empirically grounded typology of construction-emission archetypes across the region and highlights differentiated mitigation pathways: industrial decarbonization in system shapers; material efficiency in fast-growing latecomers; green trade governance in import-dependent economies; and low-carbon reconstruction in conflict-affected states.