Remote Sensing Dynamic Monitoring and Driving Mechanism of Lake Area in Ebinur Lake, 1992–2024

Arid inland saline lakes are key components of basin ecosystems. As the largest saline lake in Xinjiang and a critical ecological barrier in northwest China, Ebinur Lake’s area dynamics are vital to regional sustainable development. This study integrates Landsat imagery (1992–2024) with meteorological and socio-economic data to investigate optimal water extraction methods, spatio-temporal lake area variations, and driving mechanisms. Multiple methods were employed, including water index comparison, Mann–Kendall test, Pearson correlation, and ridge regression. Results show that: (1) the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) maintains high, stable classification accuracy across years and months, making it suitable for long-term monitoring; (2) from 1992 to 2024, lake area demonstrates a significant fluctuating downward trend without abrupt change points, indicating continuous degradation. During the growing season (April–October), it first decreases and then increases, with larger early-season areas, minima in August and September, coinciding with peak agricultural irrigation demand; (3) regarding driving mechanisms, socio-economic factors dominate (approximately 70%), while meteorological factors play a weakly regulatory role (about 30%). Population growth and increased water consumption are the primary drivers, with obvious seasonal differences. Meteorological changes, socio-economic development, and ecological measures jointly influence lake area. Although extreme events (e.g., anomalous precipitation) induce short-term fluctuations, they do not alter the long-term degradation trend dominated by human activities. This study provides methodological support for long-term monitoring of arid saline lakes and scientific evidence for ecological conservation and water resource management in the Ebinur Lake Basin.