Anthropogenic Warming Increases Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin, China in 1961–2020

ABSTRACT The Huaihe River basin (HRB) is highly susceptible to extreme precipitation disasters and has a high risk of flooding. However, there is currently a lack of quantitative analysis and mechanistic explanation regarding the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme precipitation in the HRB. Here we investigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the total precipitation when precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile (R95p) over the HRB. And explore the underlying causes by using observational data in conjunction with greenhouse gas‐forced and natural‐forced experiment data from the CMIP6 program. In 1961–2020, summer average R95p over the HRB has increased by 26.21%. In the selected CMIP6 models, the greenhouse gas forcing experiment found a faster increase in R95p than the natural forcing experiment. The CMIP6 model data indicates that extreme precipitation years in the greenhouse gas forcing experiment increase by 57.14% compared with the natural forcing experiment. Further analysis indicates that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to an uneven reduction of spring snow cover in northern Asia and sea ice cover in the Arctic, resulting in an increase in summer blocking events over the eastern Ural Mountains. This enhances the dynamic and thermal conditions of precipitation in the HRB, making it more conducive to extreme precipitation events. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms by which greenhouse gas emissions influence regional extreme precipitation and have significant implications for long‐term forecasting of extreme precipitation events in the HRB.