Youth, democratic distrust, and conspiracy beliefs: how perceived exclusion shapes political meaning-making

Young people across Europe face overlapping crises that have intensified institutional distrust and democratic disillusionment. This article examines how perceived exclusion – linked to financial insecurity, migration background, and peripheral residence – relates to conspiracy beliefs among young people in Germany. Drawing on a nationally representative survey of 16–29-year-olds (N = 3,244), we estimate a structural equation model to test whether democratic satisfaction mediates the relationship between social inequalities and conspiracy beliefs about the war in Ukraine. The results indicate that lower democratic satisfaction is significantly associated with higher endorsement of conspiracy narratives, while financial insecurity is primarily linked indirectly via democratic satisfaction. We interpret these beliefs not as deviance, but as a form of political meaning-making shaped by experiences of democratic exclusion.