Terrain Constraints on Agricultural Development and Water Resource Coordination in China

Addressing the mismatch between agricultural development and water resource conditions, this study selected 22 provinces and 4 municipalities in China from 2014 to 2023 as the research area and incorporated terrain factors into the analytical framework. An evaluation system for the Agricultural Emphasis Index and Water Resource Condition Index was established. The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, standard deviation ellipse model, spatial difference coefficient, and two-way fixed effects model were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations and coordination relationships between agricultural development and water resource conditions. The results showed that the Agricultural Emphasis Index continuously increased during the study period, whereas water resource conditions remained relatively stable, indicating different evolutionary patterns between the two systems. The coordination level of the Agriculture–Water Resources System generally improved, but significant regional disparities remained. Plain regions exhibited stronger coordination foundations, while mountainous and plateau regions showed relatively lower coordination levels due to terrain constraints and resource limitations. Spatial displacement existed between agricultural advantage regions and water resource advantage regions, although the matching degree between the two systems gradually improved. The evaluation framework established in this study provides a scientific basis for optimizing regional agricultural layouts, improving water resource allocation, and promoting coordinated agricultural and water resource development.