Foreign Aid as Statecraft: Muslim Donors in the Horn of Africa

Abstract Muslim states are often assumed to disburse foreign aid based on religious identity, but this does not explain the policies of Türkiye, the UAE, and Qatar toward the Horn of Africa. This article contends that aid decisions among these donors are driven primarily by geopolitical interests rather than religious solidarity or regime type. Adopting the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism, this analysis compares official data on aid from Türkiye, Qatar, and the UAE to Somalia and Sudan between 2013 and 2023. It demonstrates that aid allocation is shaped by systemic pressures, such as the Gulf rift in 2017 and Sudan's 2019 military coup, which are filtered through unit‐level variables like leader perception, state capacity, and needs for regime security. The findings reveal stark contrasts among the donor states. The article contributes to the literature by demonstrating how emerging Muslim‐state donors instrumentalize aid to advance strategic interests in contested regions and by highlighting the interplay of humanitarianism and realpolitik in global development. This article is part of a series guest edited by Hamdullah Baycar and Betul Dogan‐Akkas, based on the Gulf Studies Symposium organized by the Gulf International Forum, April 11–12, 2025, at Georgetown University in Washington.