Global convergence in social progress? A club analysis using the Social Progress Index time series 1990–2020

Abstract This paper analyzes long-term convergence in social progress across countries, addressing the scarcity of temporal analyses in the Beyond GDP agenda. While previous research has focused primarily on income convergence, this study applies the concept to a multidimensional indicator of quality of life, the Social Progress Index (SPI), to assess whether countries are converging toward similar levels of social well-being over time. Using the SPI time-series dataset covering 1990–2020, this study applies the Phillips–Sul club convergence algorithm to a sample of 169 countries worldwide. This method allows both the assessment of overall convergence and the identification of country groups (clubs) sharing common long-run steady states. The analysis is performed for the aggregate SPI and its three dimensions: Basic Human Needs, Foundations of Well-being and Opportunity. Determinants of club membership are also explored through ordered logit regressions. While the results reject global convergence for the overall Index, they indicate that countries converge toward a common steady state in Basic Human Needs and Foundations of Well-being, whereas six convergence clubs emerge in the Opportunity dimension. Membership in higher-performing clubs is associated with structural and institutional characteristics typical of advanced economies, including lower population growth, higher GDP per capita, a larger tertiary sector, democratic governance and economic freedom.