Scenario planning for renewable energy transition for rural towns in the United States: lessons from Algona City of Iowa, United States

Abstract Rural towns across the world face unique challenges in navigating energy transitions. The hurdle is dire in the United States due to demographic shifts, aging infrastructure, and limited institutional capacity. This paper examines how exploratory scenarios can serve as participatory, adaptive tools for renewable energy transition planning in rural town contexts, using Algona, Iowa, as a case study. Using surveys, interviews, case studies, and focus group discussions, four future energy scenarios – business as usual, utility-scale solar and biogas, community solar and agrivoltaics, and energy efficiency and Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) – and their evaluation criteria were co-created based on community values, technical feasibility, cost, aesthetics, and scalability for energy transition planning in rural towns. Community perspectives and priorities on energy futures are diverse and sometimes conflicting, highlighting the need for multimodal engagement strategies and for building trust through exploratory scenarios that offer a replicable energy transition planning framework for rural communities in the United States and other countries. The study finds that the Algona community preferred small-scale, flexible energy scenarios and suggests leveraging these preferences to build momentum for larger energy transitions. Scenario planning not only supports strategic decision-making under uncertainty but also fosters inclusivity, ownership, and resilience for energy transition planning for communities in the shrinking rural towns in the United States and internationally.