PMF Model Combined with Pb, Cd Isotopes Technology to Track Heavy Metals Accumulated in Paddy Soils of Ningxia, China

To clarify the pollution characteristics and source composition of heavy metals in the paddy soils of the Yellow River irrigation district of Ningxia, a total of 515 surface soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of As, Hg, Pb, Cd, and Cr were measured. Regional-scale pollution assessment and source apportionment were conducted using the geo-accumulation index, spatial interpolation analysis, and the Positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Based on the regional pollution assessment and spatial distribution patterns, a representative area with relatively elevated Cd accumulation and more pronounced anthropogenic influence was selected for local-scale isotope investigation. Eight paddy soil samples and potential end-member samples were collected, and, combined with literature-based end-member data, Pb and Cd isotopes were analyzed using the MixSIAR Bayesian (version 3.1.12) mixing model to further constrain the sources of Pb and Cd in village soils. The results showed that some sampling points in the study area exceeded the soil background values, but none of the points surpassed the screening values for agricultural soil pollution risk, indicating that the overall risk of paddy soils in the study area remained low. Geo-accumulation index results indicated that As, Pb, and Cr were predominantly classified as unpolluted, whereas Hg and Cd showed more pronounced accumulation, with most sampling points reaching unpolluted to moderately polluted or higher. PMF results revealed that heavy metals in the study area primarily originated from natural sources, agricultural activities, coal combustion-related sources, and industrial–traffic mixed sources. Cd was mainly influenced by agricultural sources, Hg was primarily affected by coal combustion and related industrial activities, and Pb exhibited a mixture of multiple sources. Local isotope analysis in the representative area further indicated that industrial and agricultural sources were the main contributors to soil Cd, accounting for 34.3% and 33.1%, respectively. Pb was primarily derived from agricultural activities (38.1%), while coal emissions, industrial sources, natural sources, and traffic contributed 19.2%, 18.3%, 16.9%, and 7.5%, respectively, indicating a complex mixture of agricultural, industrial, coal-combustion, natural, and traffic-related inputs. The combined application of PMF and Pb/Cd isotopes allowed for constraints on heavy metal sources at both regional and local scales, providing a scientific basis for pollution control and agricultural safety management in paddy soils of the Yellow River irrigation district.