Virtual Reconnaissance and Fragility Analysis of Center Pivot Irrigation Systems andPoultry Houses Following Hurricane Idalia

Abstract Agricultural structures, including center pivot irrigation systems and poultry houses, are critical in sustaining food production and supporting the economy, particularly in the United States’ rural communities. The vulnerability of these structures to extreme wind events, such as hurricanes and derechos, can significantly disrupt agricultural operations, affecting food supply, local economies, and livelihoods. These structures are not only vital for the functioning of farms but also deeply intertwined with the resilience of agricultural communities. Despite their importance, there is limited understanding of how these structures perform under extreme weather conditions and how their failure affects agricultural productivity, community recovery, and resilience. This paper investigates the impact of strong winds on center pivot irrigation systems and poultry houses, leveraging the event of Hurricane Idalia in northern Florida. A probabilistic analysis of postevent aerial imagery was performed to assess the damage to the agricultural structures and identify key variables correlated to their vulnerability. Notably, shorter center pivot irrigation systems have a higher probability of withstanding strong winds. Within the Hurricane Idalia dataset, longer poultry houses exhibited lower observed damage rates within construction-age groups; however, multivariate analysis indicates that wind speed and construction era are the most consistent predictors of damage probability, with geometric effects contributing more modest conditional influence. By quantifying the structural characteristics associated with reduced wind vulnerability, this paper provides evidence that can inform design improvements and targeted mitigation strategies to bolster the resilience of agricultural communities.