Bridging protection–development divide: quasi-experimental evidence on how spatial planning promotes sustainability through land-use restructuring

Land use represents a critical policy lever for mediating ecosystem services (ES) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), yet quasi-experimental evidence is lacking on whether spatial planning can effectively promote SDG performance by closing ES supply–demand gaps. We develop an integrated framework linking ES supply–demand balance to SDG assessment. Using China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt during 2000–2020, we apply Propensity Score Matching–Difference-in-Differences to evaluate Major Function-oriented Zone Planning (MFZP) policy. MFZP significantly enhanced the ES-linked performance ( \({SD}{G}_{{index}}\) ) in restricted development zones, with a stronger effect in Key Ecological Function Zones (KEFZ, 0.554) than in Major Agricultural Production Zones (MAPZ, 0.375), both relative to Key Development Zones (KDZ). \({SD}{G}_{{index}}\) followed a clear spatial gradient: KEFZ > MAPZ > KDZ > Optimized Development Zones. Land-use restructuring emerged as the core transmission pathway through dual mechanisms: supply-side greening via forestland and grassland expansion (contributing 10.0% of the mediation effect) and demand-side de-graying through constraints on built-up land (16.3%). Policy effects shifted after 2015 from defensive protection toward proactive restoration by narrowing ES supply–demand gaps. We conclude that spatially differentiated governance can reconcile the protection-development goals, offering a transferable policy model for regional sustainability in global transitional economies.