Forecasting the population size and care staffing needs of disabled older adults in rural China

With profound changes in population structure, the number of disabled older adults in rural China, as well as their care staffing needs, has received widespread recognition. Based on data from the Seventh National Population Census (2020) and the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (2018), a forecasting model was developed to estimate the population size and care staffing needs of disabled older adults in rural China through 2050. The results showed that: (1) The disability rate among older adults in rural China is projected to increase in line with population aging. The average disability rates among older adults aged 65 and above, 80 and above, and 100 and above were 21.91%, 31.63%, and 61.20%, respectively. (2) The proportion of disabled older adults is projected to increase, especially among the oldest-old and women. By 2050, this increase will be particularly pronounced among older women and those aged 74 and above. (3) The number of older adults with severe disabilities in rural China is projected to increase, and they will account for more than one-third of the disabled older population by 2050. (4) Care staffing needs for severely disabled older adults in rural China are projected to increase. By 2050, the needs will exceed four million annually. These findings suggest that: (1) a multi-tier long-term care (LTC) system should be improved to address the growing disability burden in rural China; (2) differentiated service packages should be developed to respond to heterogeneous needs by age, gender, and severity; and (3) diversified provision mechanisms should be promoted to ensure sustainable care delivery.