Predicting clinical outcomes in polytrauma patients using components of the Berlin definition of polytrauma

Background The Berlin polytrauma definition includes injuries with an abbreviated injury scale (AIS) score ≥3 in ≥2 body regions combined with ≥1 physiological risk factor (PRF). We aimed to examine the influence of injury severity score (ISS)+PRFs on patient mortality, length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, length of hospital stay, and cost of care. We also aimed to develop a mathematical model to predict the above outcomes using ISS and PRFs measured after admission. Methods In this retrospective analysis of polytrauma patients between April 2022 to July 2023, logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the combined effects of ISS+PRFs on length of ICU and hospital stays and cost of care for survivors, and their effects on mortality for the entire study population. Results There was a statistically significant influence of ISS and PRFs on the probability of cost of care >₹0.63 million (6.3 lakhs) for survivors (₹0.63 million [6.3 lakhs] lakhs being the median cost). Survivors did not show any significant relation between ISS+PRFs and length of ICU/hospital stay. Additionally, ISS and PRFs significantly influenced mortality for the entire study population. A mathematical model for predicting probabilities of ‘mortality’ and ‘cost of care of >₹0.63 million (6.3 lakhs)’ was made based on the analysis. Conclusion The results of this model indicate the possibility of predicting the cost of care and probability of mortality using ISS and PRFs in polytrauma patients.