Spatial spillover effects of German clinker production on regional air pollution

The cement industry is a primary contributor to industrial air pollution, with clinker production representing the most emissions-intensive stage of manufacturing. In Germany, clinker production accounts for approximately 21.1% of total industrial nitrogen oxide emissions, yet its spatial dynamics remain under-researched. This study investigates the direct and spatial spillover effects of clinker production on nitrogen dioxide concentrations across 393 administrative districts from 2018 to 2022. Using a spatial Durbin model to account for regional dependencies, the results reveal that clinker production significantly increases nitrogen dioxide levels. Crucially, the findings indicate that spatial spillover effects on neighboring regions (0.021%) are more than four times larger than direct local impacts (0.005%). These results, which are statistically significant, meaning they differ from random noise, remain consistent across various robustness checks and confirm the presence of significant regional environmental externalities. The study suggests that effective mitigation of nitrogen oxides in Germany requires a shift from localized targets toward coordinated, multi-regional governance frameworks to internalize the transboundary costs of industrial pollution.