Ambient concrete carbonation is a trivial contributor in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from cement production
Abstract Ambient carbonation—the passive uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the alkaline pore solution of concrete—has been proposed to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from cement production. Herein, we apply thermodynamic and diffusion-based analyses within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the extent and rate of ambient carbonation across concrete formulations and geometries (i.e., described by their surface-to-volume ratio, ranging between 0.01-to-80, /m), globally. The analysis indicates that, by 2030, the carbonation of concrete placed in service, globally, under ambient conditions, is projected to uptake around 0.23 gigatonnes annually (i.e., <10% of annual cement clinker emissions). Thus, the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by ambient carbonation is negligible compared to the quantities emitted during cement production. Importantly, this analysis underscores the importance of prioritizing near-term industrial decarbonization and of advancing intentional climate change mitigation solutions that deliver meaningful and timely reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
Authors
- Dale P. Prentice (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4980-8751)
- Rui Xiao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1025-6651)
- Manas Sarkar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9941-3822)
- Mathieu Bauchy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4600-0631)
- Narayanan Neithalath (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3174-0402)
- Gaurav Sant (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1124-5498)
- Erika Callagon La Plante (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5273-9523)
- Fabian Rosner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0299-0557)
- Aditya Kumar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7550-8034)
Institutions
- California NanoSystems Institute (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Lingnan University (HK)
- Missouri University of Science and Technology (US)
- C-M Concrete Products (Australia) (AU)
- Arizona State University (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Sustainability
- Published
- 2026-07-25
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9
- Primary Topic
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy
- J.B. and M.K. Pritzker Family Foundation
- Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment
- Office of Fossil Energy
- Advanced Research Projects Agency
- National Energy Technology Laboratory
- Office of the President, University of California
- Division of Materials Research