The Paradox of Inclusion: Modeling Systemic Dynamics of the Gender Finance Gap in Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

Gender inequality in venture capital remains a persistent systemic issue shaped by interacting socio-institutional, network, and entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) dynamics. This study examines how targeted inclusion interventions interact with structural and network-level dynamics to shape the gender finance gap. Conceptualizing the financial support network (FSN) as a complex adaptive system embedded in an EE, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to simulate how male-, female-, and mixed-team-founded startups, accelerators, and venture capitalists co-evolve across different levels of ecosystem development and connection regimes. The model examines interventions across three nodes of the financing pipeline: expanding female- and mixed-founded startups at ecosystem entry, implementing positive gender discrimination in accelerator selection, and adopting gender-preferential funds allocation by venture capitalists. We assess how these interventions influence systemic patterns of equity and efficiency under different EE conditions. Results reveal non-linear, context-dependent, and outcome-dependent dynamics. Specifically, in underdeveloped ecosystems, isolated interventions aimed at increasing representation at entry or within accelerators reduce overall investment volume and may temporarily widen the funding gap. By contrast, developed ecosystems absorb such increased representation without major efficiency losses, although representation gains alone do not necessarily translate into more equitable funding outcomes. Conversely, coordinated interventions across multiple stages of the financing pipeline, particularly those combining network access and preferential capital allocation, generate stronger equity gains while maintaining systemic efficiency as ecosystems mature. Overall, these findings conceptualize the gender finance gap as a wicked problem embedded in the adaptive structure of entrepreneurial finance and highlight the importance for systemic, sequenced, and context-sensitive inclusion strategies. JEL Code: L26, J16, D85, G24, C63.