Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the coupling coordination between Agricultural Digitalization and Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces

The mutually reinforcing and coordinated development of Agricultural Digitalization (AD) and Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces (ANQPF) is an important path to achieving the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. Utilizing panel data from 31 provinces spanning 2012 to 2023, this study employs an Improved Coupling Coordination Degree Model (ICCDM), an Obstacle Degree Model (ODM), and a Random Effects Panel Tobit Model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the internal and external determinants of the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) between AD and ANQPF. The results indicate that: (1) From 2012 to 2023, both AD and ANQPF exhibited a steady upward trend, yet their overall development levels remained relatively low. (2) During this period, the CCD between the two systems evolved from moderately uncoordinated development to barely coordinated development, forming a distinct spatial pattern characterized by “the Eastern region leading, the Central region tackling key challenges, and the Western region catching up.” (3) Internet penetration rate, leisure agriculture, and other factors are key obstacles affecting the coupling coordination, displaying heterogeneous characteristics across different regions. (4) Economic Development Level, Agricultural Development Level, Rural Consumption Level, Fiscal Support Intensity, Openness To Foreign Trade, and Agricultural Security Level significantly improve the CCD between AD and ANQPF, whereas Industrial Development Level has a significant negative effect on the CCD. Furthermore, external influencing factors demonstrated notable regional variations. Consequently, implementing targeted policies and region-targeted guidance represents an imperative pathway for fostering the coordinated development of AD and ANQPF.