The interplay of gender, culture, and psychology in shaping entrepreneurial intentions in Sidama, Ethiopia: a mixed-methods, TPB-informed investigation in a collectivist African context

Youth unemployment is a pressing challenge in Ethiopia, and understanding the socio-psychological drivers of entrepreneurial intention is critical for policy design. However, most entrepreneurial intention research has been conducted in Western contexts, and the applicability of dominant models like the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to collectivist African settings remains undertheorized and empirically underexamined. This study investigates how psychological factors and gender shape entrepreneurial intentions among urban youth in Sidama, Ethiopia, using a TPB-informed framework adapted for a collectivist context. A sequential mixed-methods design combined a survey of 384 young people (60% female, mean age 24.3 years) with 12 key informant interviews and 6 focus group discussions (48 participants). Binary logistic regression was employed after diagnostic checks confirmed model adequacy, with robustness checks including probit, linear probability, ordered logit, bootstrap, and subsample analyses. Binary logistic regression showed that self-efficacy (OR = 2.10, p < 0.001), risk tolerance (OR = 1.80, p < 0.001), and proactiveness (OR = 2.41, p < 0.001) significantly increased the likelihood of high entrepreneurial intention. Contrary to findings from many Western contexts, female respondents reported significantly higher entrepreneurial intentions than males (OR = 0.35, p < 0.001). Qualitative data revealed that this counter-intuitive pattern is driven by gendered economic necessity, culturally sanctioned trading niches for women, communal safety nets that enhance women's perceived behavioral control, and social stigma (Lawa/shame) that deters men from informal entrepreneurship. The study demonstrates that entrepreneurial intention in collectivist African settings is not merely an individual cognition but a socially negotiated stance shaped by gendered norms, communal expectations, and culturally specific definitions of risk and control. We propose that TPB constructs, particularly perceived behavioral control and subjective norms, require cultural adaptation to incorporate communal resources and social sanctions. Policy implications include gender-differentiated entrepreneurship support and leveraging community structures (e.g., idir groups) for youth enterprise development.