Impact of climate change on the global circulation of chikungunya virus: current evidence, future projections, and adaptation strategies

BACKGROUND: Climate change is accelerating the circulation of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), posing a significant threat to both endemic areas and immunologically naive temperate regions. This study aims to synthesize empirical climatic drivers, future transmission projections, and global adaptation strategies to evaluate current evidence and identify key research gaps. METHODS: This scoping review completed protocol registration on the Open Science Framework prior to literature retrieval, with systematic searches conducted across PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and EBSCOhost to collect all relevant English peer-reviewed papers published between Jan 1, 2000 and Nov 1, 2025. Multi-level screening filtered out unqualified literature, and unified datasets related to epidemiological parameters, predictive models and adaptation measures were extracted from 104 eligible studies. RESULTS: The results indicate that: (1) Current evidence reveals post-2014 research favors Europe and South America, disproportionately focusing on temperature (n = 38) and precipitation (n = 32). CHIKV transmission exhibits a non-linear thermal optimum (23-30 °C) and a 1-to-4-week lag following extreme precipitation. (2) Future projections (n = 24) consistently indicate transboundary vector expansion into higher latitudes and altitudes. (3) Regarding adaptation strategies, we conceptualized a three-tiered intervention framework. However, a stark socioeconomic-climatic gap emerged: while 43% of the research centers on mid-tier early warning systems in high and upper-middle-income nations, evidence for the foundational infrastructural resilience in low-income regions is limited. CONCLUSION: This global climate-CHIKV synthesis reveals structurally imbalanced preparedness. To mitigate escalating transboundary risks, international health policies must pivot from solely reactive surveillance. Future priorities should include proactive, climate-resilient urban infrastructure and equitable cross-border coalitions in neglected low-resource settings.