Parental functional limitation and children’s marriage market outcomes: evidence from China

This paper examines the causal effect of parental functional limitation on children’s marital outcomes in China. Exploiting longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2022) and a difference-in-differences design, we find that parental functional limitation reduces children’s marriage probability by 2.4% points (approximately 3.5%), with no significant effect on divorce. The effect is entirely driven by sons and by paternal functional limitation, consistent with patrilineal caregiving norms under which sons bear primary eldercare responsibility. Mechanism analyses reveal that, following the onset of parental functional limitation, children increase financial transfers to parents, shift towards daily caregiving for functionally limited fathers, work longer weekend hours, and experience deteriorating physical health. At the family level, expenses shift towards housing as well as communication and transportation while mortgage payments and other discretionary expenses decline, potentially constraining homeownership and marriage formation. Our findings highlight how the absence of formal long-term care systems transforms eldercare into a structural barrier to family formation for the next generation.