Iran's Gas Sector in Conflict: Infrastructure Vulnerability & Market Implications

Abstract This article examines the structural vulnerability of Iran's natural gas sector under conditions of conflict, focusing on the March 2026 strikes on the South Pars/Asaluyeh complex. Despite holding the world's second‐largest reserves and ranking among the top producers, Iran's gas system is characterized by high infrastructure concentration, overwhelming domestic consumption, limited export flexibility, and chronic underinvestment. The study argues that these structural features transform resource abundance into conditional vulnerability by limiting the system's ability to absorb supply disruptions. South Pars, which accounts for most of the national output, functions as a critical single point of failure. Damage to this hub triggered domestic shortages, export reductions to Turkey and Iraq, and cascading effects across gas processing, electricity generation, and regional pipeline flows. Retaliatory strikes on Qatar's liquefied natural gas infrastructure amplified global market volatility, highlighting how disruptions to infrastructure can be transmitted across regional and global gas markets. The article concludes that the power of an energy system is no longer defined by resource endowment alone, but by resilience. Iran's case illustrates how infrastructure fragility can rapidly convert strategic assets into liabilities.