Lobbying for Trade Liberalization and Its Policy Influence

ABSTRACT Lobbying activities are important to promoting Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This paper quantifies the influence of lobbying on the probability of ratification of three bilateral FTAs in the US Congress in 2011. I build a contest model where lobbying affects the ratification probability through votes in Congress. Results suggest that both supporting and opposing lobbying have large effects on the probability of ratification, but the total effect is less than 2%. Lobbying would be more efficient if expenditures were transferred between the House and Senate, as well as between Republicans and Democrats.