Scenario-based foresight as a framework for anticipating vulnerabilities in freshwater ecosystem services

Lake Gahar, a vital freshwater ecosystem in Iran's Central Zagros, faces critical sustainability threats. This study applies a foresight framework to identify why previous conservation efforts have failed and what combination of actions is necessary for a sustainable future. Using a mixed-methods approach (expert panel, Delphi method, n = 16), structural analysis with MICMAC software identified six strategic macro-drivers: water pollution, overgrazing, data scarcity, insufficient funding, poor management, and lack of education. These six drivers, with 15 possible states, were modeled in Scenario Wizard software. The analysis showed an "L"-shaped stability pattern. Out of 216 possible scenarios, only 11 were highly plausible, of which 5 were desirable. Scenario No. 1 (ideal conditions for all drivers) represents the best future, while Scenario No. 11 (poor conditions for all drivers) represents the worst. The main finding is that partial solutions will not work. The real bottleneck is not lack of knowledge, but fragmented governance. Lake Gahar's future depends on simultaneous action across all six drivers. This study provides decision-makers with a practical roadmap showing where to invest first: management, funding, education, pollution control, grazing management, and data systems.