Evaluating Wildfire Risk Using GIS-Based AHP with FIRMS Fire Data: The Case of Bejaia, Algeria

This study integrates human and environmental factors into a georeferenced spatial database to assess wildfire risk in Bejaia, Algeria. Using GIS-based techniques and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a wildfire risk map for 2023 was developed and validated with NASA FIRMS active fire data through IDW interpolation. The assessment of vulnerability was conducted separately. The analysis was based on key spatial layers representing both hazard and socio-economic vulnerability. The normalized raster layers were integrated through a weighted linear combination implemented in the Raster Calculator tool in ArcGIS. Results indicate that 5% of the area is at very high risk, 55% at high risk, 37% at moderate risk, and 3% at low risk, emphasizing the region vulnerability. Major contributing factors include extensive grasslands and forests (77%), moderate rainfall (44%), gentle slopes (31%), and sun- and wind-exposed areas (37%), which encourage vegetation growth and drying. Human proximity (over 85%) further elevates risk, while high temperatures (36%) and light winds (26%) enhance ignition potential. In Bejaia, wildfire vulnerability is highest where human activity, dense buildings and roads, and forests intersect, particularly along urban – forest interfaces, due to increased ignition risk and high socio-economic exposure. The study recommends strengthening preventive measures near roads and settlements, implementing vegetation and moisture monitoring systems, and prioritizing interventions in heavily forested and rangeland areas during hot and dry periods.