Science achievement from grades 4 to 8: Structural equation modeling using longitudinal data

This study investigates the longitudinal development of students’ academic achievement and the predictive role of science scores in grades 4–8 on High School Entrance Exam outcomes in Türkiye. The data were examined through the application of two separate structural equation models. The constructed models assess the temporal, autoregressive relationships among academic performance from 4th to 8th grade and examine the direct and indirect effects on the High School Entrance Exam performance using longitudinal data. According to the results, science achievement at each grade level significantly predicts academic performance in subsequent years and shows both direct and indirect effects on High School Entrance Exam scores. Although gender showed a small but statistically significant effect at certain grade levels, it did not have a meaningful or practically significant impact on High School Entrance Exam science achievement. Both models demonstrated good fit and explained more than 50% of the variance in High School Entrance Exam science scores. When the two models were compared, Grade 6 science achievement demonstrated a stronger predictive effect on High School Entrance Exam scores. The findings indicate that early academic success plays a critical role in future performance and highlight the strategic importance of early interventions.