Feedback Dynamics of Value and Trust in Geographical Indication Products with Origin- and Aging-Based Premiums: A Preliminary Causal Loop Diagram of Xinhui Chenpi

Geographical indication (GI) products are often understood through terroir, certification, and branding, yet less attention has been paid to the feedback dynamics through which their market value is amplified and destabilized. This paper applies systems thinking to the post-harvest value–trust subsystem of Xinhui Chenpi, a traditional Chinese aged citrus pericarp product with GI protection, to examine how value amplification and systemic vulnerability emerge through interacting feedback mechanisms. Drawing on 28 semi-structured interviews conducted between September 2023 and December 2024, supplemented by participant observation, policy and standard documents, field-based market observations, and contextual media materials, the study develops a preliminary causal loop diagram (CLD) with 15 endogenous feedback variables, 3 boundary value-input variables, 4 exogenous contextual inputs, and 21 causal links (18 endogenous and 3 value-input). The model identifies two reinforcing loops and two balancing loops through which price expectations, holding incentives, credible circulation supply, perceived scarcity, misrepresentation, and trust erosion interact. The trust-erosion loop shows how premium-driven misrepresentation increases claim uncertainty, weakens open-market consumer trust, reduces credible open-market liquidity, and further contracts credible circulation supply. Buyer exit and delayed supply response operate as limited balancing mechanisms because their effects are segment-dependent and constrained by aging and verification delays. The proposed CLD suggests that high-value mechanisms in aging-dependent GI products may also generate structural vulnerabilities, with implications for managing consumer trust, claim verification, and credible circulation in premium markets.