Climate Change May Drive the Distribution and Richness Patterns of Global Pinus L.

Climate change has significantly affected the geographical distribution and richness patterns of plant species worldwide. Pinus is a major component of many temperate and montane forests in the Northern Hemisphere and is important for carbon storage, climatic buffering and timber production. Here, we utilized the MaxEnt model and integrated global occurrence records of 113 Pinus species, predicting climatic envelopes and diversity distribution patterns under three emission scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, while also identifying diversity hotspots, high-decline regions, and conservation gaps. As global overheating and linked climatic variations intensify, climatically suitable areas for Pinus are projected to shift poleward. Using projected climatic envelope contraction as a screening criterion, 7.96%–44.25% of species qualified as climate-vulnerable across scenarios. Additionally, Pinus demonstrates high species richness in North America, the Mediterranean region, and mid-latitude mountainous regions of East Asia. Our predictions reveal that species richness distribution will be notably influenced by climate change, with impacts gradually intensifying as climate change progresses. Fortunately, the current coverage rate of protected areas in diversity hotspots exceeds 92.31%, and the conservation gaps primarily occur in Mexico. It is anticipated that over 86.46% of hotspot areas will remain protected in the future. However, new conservation gaps may arise in eastern North America and southeastern Europe; these regions should be prioritized in future conservation planning. Our research enhances current understanding of how species might respond to the challenges of climate change while also providing practical guidance for priority conservation planning targeting both biodiversity hotspots and high-decline regions.