High-resolution projections of carbon neutrality in China: implications for low-carbon territorial space utilization

Formulating low-carbon optimization strategies for territorial space is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and addressing climate change. This study employed the STIRPAT model and CMIP6 ESMs to simulate China's carbon emissions and carbon sinks from 2020 to 2060 under SSP-RCP scenarios, with carbon sinks measured using NEP, and explored the viability of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It further analyzed the NEP-based carbon sink carrying capacity of different land use/cover types and the spatiotemporal patterns of net carbon emissions at high spatial resolution. Results indicate that carbon emissions peak in 2026 under SSP1–2.6 and in 2036 under SSP5–8.5. Under all scenarios, carbon sink capacity increases slightly, with forest, cropland, and grassland as the main contributors. Forest accounts for an average of 46.53% of carbon sink capacity. The greatest carbon neutrality potential occurs under SSP1–2.6, where carbon sinks can offset up to 46.66% of anthropogenic emissions by 2060. Most provinces will remain net emitters, except for several northwestern provinces. Provinces near southeastern coastal urban agglomerations constitute the core emission zones, especially those adjacent to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Therefore, the development of low-carbon territorial space is a key task for China's future. These findings highlight the importance of low-carbon territorial space optimization for supporting China's “dual carbon” goals and sustainable territorial space utilization.