Prediction of Global Seismic Activity for June–December 2026 Based on the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model

This paper applies a physically-based model—the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model—to predict global seismic activity for the period June–December 2026, defined from the date of model registration (May 28, 2026) through December 31, 2026. The core equations are recurrence interval T = S_crit / α and magnitude M = (2/3)·log₁₀(η·S_crit·L·W) − 6.0, where α is the encrypted chain stress accumulation rate, S_crit is the fracture threshold, and L and W are fault zone length and width. To avoid circular validation, seven landmark earthquakes are divided into a calibration set (four events) and a validation set (three events). The calibration set verifies the model's self-consistency; the validation set provides an independent test. After calibrating parameters using GPS data, historical earthquake catalogs, and geological surveys, the model identifies eight plate-boundary systems worldwide with elevated probability of large earthquakes. The prediction unit is the system as a whole, rather than any specific fault segment within it. Each prediction includes the system identification, magnitude range, time window, and error estimates. All predictions are directly testable against actual seismic data. A detailed Appendix provides the complete parameter calibration chain for each predicted system, from raw observational data to final parameter values.