Attribution of the Record‐Breaking June 2024 Eastern Mediterranean Heatwave: Contrasting Roles of Soil Moisture in Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability

Abstract In June 2024, the Eastern Mediterranean experienced its hottest June since 1960. However, the relative contributions of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to this event, and the roles of atmospheric circulation and soil moisture, remain unclear. Using ERA5 reanalysis and HadGEM3‐A‐N216 attribution simulations, we estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributes roughly half of the temperature anomalies, through greenhouse gas‐induced warming and through soil drying that amplifies the heatwave via soil moisture‐temperature feedback. The remaining half attributable to natural variability is dominated (>90%) by an anomalous anticyclone driven by an upstream wave train and associated with positive North Atlantic SST anomalies. Additionally, wetter soil within the natural variability component, caused by above‐normal preceding precipitation, produces a slight cooling that partially offsets the circulation‐induced temperature anomalies. These findings highlight contrasting soil moisture roles during this event, as anomalously wet soil within the natural variability component prevented an even more intense heatwave.