Mapping the Future of Nature-Based Solutions in Sustainable Agriculture: A Structural Topic Modeling and Socio-Ecological Scenario Analysis

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as important strategies for advancing agricultural sustainability and supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Much research has highlighted the biophysical potential of NbS; however, the literature remains fragmented regarding their socio-economic and governance implications. This study synthesizes existing research, identifies major knowledge structures, and develops a forward-looking research agenda. We analyzed 1198 academic articles using Structural Topic Modeling (STM) to identify ten latent topics. These topics were subsequently mapped onto the adapted Agro-Ecotopia model based on two dimensions: Ecosystem State & Control and Governance Logic & Goal Alignment. This approach established an Agro-NbS analytical framework and identified four exploratory scenarios: Green Regulation, Engineered Ecotopia, Vulnerable Wilderness, and Grassroots Resilience. These scenarios characterize diverse pathways of agricultural NbS development, highlighting potential spatial trade-offs and emerging system vulnerabilities associated with social equity. Furthermore, this study extends traditional biophysical assessments by emphasizing the importance of polycentric governance and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) in addressing complex climate challenges. The findings contribute to the understanding of agricultural Socio-Ecological Systems (SESs) and provide insights for policymakers seeking to promote a more equitable transition toward sustainable agriculture.