Conspiracy theories and post-crisis adaptation after the Lahaina fires of 2023

Adaptive capacity after natural hazards depends on collective trust, shared understanding, and effective coordination. However, in the aftermath of the 2023 Lahaina wildfires in Hawai’i, a surge of conspiracy theories circulated on the X platform at the same time it was being used for coordination and relief efforts. The conspiracies often targeted persons or institutions essential to recovery efforts, as well as played upon historical mistrusts attendant to the colonial history of Hawai’i. This study analyzes over 18,000 X posts from the five weeks following the fires to examine how conspiracy narratives emerged and circulated. Using Top2Vec topic modeling and qualitative interpretation, we identify and categorize both fantastical conspiracies (directed energy weapons, child trafficking) and grounded, politically charged claims (gentrification and land management). We find that the themes of these narratives, even while the narratives varied in plausibility, consistently compete with efforts to establish institutional trust, encourage cooperation, and support adaptive decision-making in the short and long term. In contexts like Hawai’i, where material legacies of occupation and systemic marginalization persist, researchers should treat conspiracy theories that can exacerbate or leverage existing social and institutional antagonisms as a potential barrier to equitable adaptation.