Spatiotemporal Transition Characteristics and Influencing Factors of New-Quality Productive Forces Development in China Based on Random Forest Model

New-quality productive forces provide an important conceptual lens for understanding how innovation-driven development, digital empowerment, and the green transition jointly support sustainable regional development. From a geographical perspective, this study develops a multidimensional evaluation system for new-quality productive forces based on the three elements of productive forces: laborers, means of labor, and objects of labor. Using panel data for 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from 2012 to 2022, we integrate the entropy weight method, standard deviation ellipse, exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis, the obstacle degree model, and the random forest model to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanisms of new-quality productive forces. The results show that: (1) China’s new-quality productive forces increased steadily during the study period, but their overall level remained relatively low and regional disparities continued to widen. Spatially, they exhibited a pronounced “high in the east and low in the west” pattern, with South China and East China maintaining leading positions and Guangdong and Jiangsu forming a dual-core growth structure. (2) The spatial center of gravity remained southeast of the Hu Huanyong Line, and its expansion direction was broadly parallel to this line, indicating a relatively stable spatial configuration. The ESTDA results further reveal significant positive spatial autocorrelation, strong temporal inertia, and marked path dependence in local spatial transitions. (3) High-tech talent supply, innovation and entrepreneurship vitality, and ecological governance capacity constitute the main internal bottlenecks constraining the development of new-quality productive forces. The analysis of external factors indicates that economic scale and population size are the primary predictors of NQPF development, whereas government intervention, openness, urbanization, and industrial structure exhibit varying degrees of nonlinearity and regional heterogeneity. These findings enrich the geographical interpretation of new-quality productive forces and provide empirical evidence for formulating differentiated regional innovation policies and productivity transformation strategies.