Dynamics of Urban Expansion in the Inter-Andean Valleys: Projecting Scenarios for Sustainable Territorial Planning

Abstract. Urban growth in inter-Andean valleys has accelerated the transformation of the territory, driven by the expansion of road infrastructure and the occupation of environmentally fragile areas. In this context, the Ruta Viva highway has reconfigured urbanization patterns in the parishes of Cumbaya and Tumbaco, advancing the urban frontier into agricultural areas and moderate slopes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of urban expansion in the parishes of Cumbaya and Tumbaco during the period 2002-2032, using a multitemporal and predictive approach to project future urbanization scenarios and generate inputs for sustainable territorial planning and land management. The methodology integrated multitemporal analysis of land use and land cover data from MapBiomas (2002-2022), predictive modelling using CA-Markov-MOLUSCE, and urban expansion analysis. The results show a 3% increase in urban coverage during the 2002-2022 period and a projected 12% growth by 2032, concentrated south of the Ruta Viva corridor and within the agricultural mosaic. Simulations show that slopes below 25° are more susceptible to urbanization, while vegetation cover loss reaches 30% on the slopes of Ilalo Hill. This study provides a robust, replicable tool for anticipating urbanization scenarios in Andean environments, guiding land management and environmental conservation strategies in regions of high urban pressure.