Outcome Prediction After [ <sup>177</sup> Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: External Validation of a [ <sup>68</sup> Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET–Based Model with [ <sup>18</sup> F]F-Flotufolastat

<sup>177</sup>Lu-prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)–targeted radiopharmaceutical therapy is an established treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, though responses vary. A prognostic model using [<sup>68</sup>Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET–derived parameters was developed to predict therapy outcomes. This retrospective analysis validates the model in an independent cohort imaged with [<sup>18</sup>F]F-flotufolastat ([<sup>18</sup>F]rhPSMA-7.3 PET) before [<sup>177</sup>Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T. <b>Methods:</b> In total, 174 consecutive patients treated with [<sup>177</sup>Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T at a single center were included in this analysis. The Cox proportional hazards models for overall survival (OS) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression-free survival (PFS) and the logistic regression model for PSA response, as proposed in the prognostic model, were applied to our validation data. Model performance was evaluated using the Harrell concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. OS, PSA-PFS, and PSA response were reported with median values and 95% CI, as well as stratified by published cutoff values into low- and high-risk groups.<b> Results:</b> The estimated OS probabilities were 60% (95% CI, 53%–68%) at 12 mo and 40% (95% CI, 33%–49%) at 18 mo. Our validation yielded a C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67–0.76) for OS prediction compared with a C-index of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76) in the validation cohort. For PSA-PFS, the estimated probabilities were 56% (95% CI, 49%–65%) at 3 mo and 34% (95% CI, 27%–42%) at 6 mo, with a C-index of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.57–0.67) compared with a C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.68–0.74) in the validation data. Low-risk patients had significantly longer OS (21.8 vs. 11.6 mo, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.0001) and PSA-PFS (6.9 vs. 2.9 mo, <i>P</i> = 0.003) than did high-risk patients. The prognostic PSA response model showed slightly worse discrimination in our cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.63–0.79) than with the validation data (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; 95% CI, 0.78, 0.68–0.88). <b>Conclusion:</b> Our results indicate accuracy similar to that of the prognostic model for prediction of OS and PSA-PFS and for PSA response in an independent patient population undergoing [<sup>177</sup>Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T radiopharmaceutical therapy with [<sup>18</sup>F]F-flotufolastat instead of [<sup>68</sup>Ga]Ga-PSMA-11.

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Journal
Journal of Nuclear Medicine
Published
2026-07-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2967/jnumed.125.270944
Primary Topic
Prostate Cancer Treatment and Research
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article
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article

Outcome Prediction After [ 177 Lu]Lu-PSMA I&T in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: External Validation of a [ 68 Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET–Based Model with [ 18 F]F-Flotufolastat

Robert Tauber, Ömür Çoban, Cornelia Fütterer, Kimberley Hansen et al.
Journal of Nuclear Medicine
Prostate Cancer Treatment and Research
article

Outcome Prediction After [ 177 Lu]Lu-PSMA I&T in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: External Validation of a [ 68 Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET–Based Model with [ 18 F]F-Flotufolastat

Robert Tauber, Ömür Çoban, Cornelia Fütterer, Kimberley Hansen, Amir Karimzadeh, Stefan Hein, Wolfgang A. Weber, A Gafita, Stephan Nekolla, Matthias Heck, Bernhard Haller, Isabel Rauscher, Matthias Eiber
article en

Abstract

<sup>177</sup>Lu-prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)–targeted radiopharmaceutical therapy is an established treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, though responses vary. A prognostic model using [<sup>68</sup>Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET–derived parameters was developed to predict therapy outcomes. This retrospective analysis validates the model in an independent cohort imaged with [<sup>18</sup>F]F-flotufolastat ([<sup>18</sup>F]rhPSMA-7.3 PET) before [<sup>177</sup>Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T. <b>Methods:</b> In total, 174 consecutive patients treated with [<sup>177</sup>Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T at a single center were included in this analysis. The Cox proportional hazards models for overall survival (OS) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression-free survival (PFS) and the logistic regression model for PSA response, as proposed in the prognostic model, were applied to our validation data. Model performance was evaluated using the Harrell concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. OS, PSA-PFS, and PSA response were reported with median values and 95% CI, as well as stratified by published cutoff values into low- and high-risk groups.<b> Results:</b> The estimated OS probabilities were 60% (95% CI, 53%–68%) at 12 mo and 40% (95% CI, 33%–49%) at 18 mo. Our validation yielded a C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67–0.76) for OS prediction compared with a C-index of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76) in the validation cohort. For PSA-PFS, the estimated probabilities were 56% (95% CI, 49%–65%) at 3 mo and 34% (95% CI, 27%–42%) at 6 mo, with a C-index of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.57–0.67) compared with a C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.68–0.74) in the validation data. Low-risk patients had significantly longer OS (21.8 vs. 11.6 mo, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.0001) and PSA-PFS (6.9 vs. 2.9 mo, <i>P</i> = 0.003) than did high-risk patients. The prognostic PSA response model showed slightly worse discrimination in our cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.63–0.79) than with the validation data (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; 95% CI, 0.78, 0.68–0.88). <b>Conclusion:</b> Our results indicate accuracy similar to that of the prognostic model for prediction of OS and PSA-PFS and for PSA response in an independent patient population undergoing [<sup>177</sup>Lu]Lu-PSMA I&amp;T radiopharmaceutical therapy with [<sup>18</sup>F]F-flotufolastat instead of [<sup>68</sup>Ga]Ga-PSMA-11.

Journal of Nuclear Medicine
Johns Hopkins University (US), Universität Hamburg (DE), Johns Hopkins Medicine (US), University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (DE), Technical University of Munich (DE)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Prostate Cancer Treatment and Research
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