Ecological Restoration Zoning Optimization of Zhejiang Province Based on Current Assessment and Future Prediction of Carbon Stocks

ABSTRACT Against the backdrop of global climate change and carbon neutrality goals, accurately assessing the impacts of land use on carbon stocks and linking forward‐looking simulations with the identification of priority restoration zones is essential to shift from reactive responses to proactive planning. In this study, we coupled the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate land‐use changes and project carbon stocks under three scenarios (natural development, urban development, and cultivated land protection) from 1990 to 2040. We used global Moran's I and LISA to identify spatial clustering patterns of carbon stocks over the same period. Subsequently, by integrating the current status (2020) and future predictions (2020–2040 under three scenarios) of carbon stocks with spatial clustering results, we constructed a differentiated ecological restoration zoning scheme and overlaid it with the ecological function conservation areas to validate the zoning scheme. Results indicated that land use change led to a net carbon stock loss of 890.00 × 10 4 t from 1990 to 2020, primarily driven by the expansion of construction land at the expense of cultivated and forest land. Scenario simulations for 2020–2040 revealed strong policy dependence: carbon stock increased under the natural development (+381.38 × 10 4 t) and cultivated land protection (+375.19 × 10 4 t) scenarios, but declined substantially under the urban development scenario (−1272.48 × 10 4 t). Spatially, carbon stock exhibited long‐term stability with significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I > 0.60), forming persistent high‐high clusters in forested areas of southern and western Zhejiang, while carbon stock changes showed weakening spatial clustering over time, indicating increasing sensitivity to human disturbance. Finally, we identified five restoration zones (core conservation, priority restoration, ecological rehabilitation, adaptive management, and sustainable maintenance) and four ecological island types (existing ecological fortress, ecological scar, resilient growth point, and persistent degradation point) to guide spatially explicit restoration strategies, and the overlay results with ecological function conservation areas further informed the formulation of differentiated management strategies. This integrated framework of “assessment simulation‐spatial exploration‐restoration zoning” provides refined spatial governance support for territorial planning and the “Dual Carbon” goals in Zhejiang Province.