State TANF Caseload Trends Through a Racial Equity Lens: Examining the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program is designed for families who are experiencing challenging financial situations, like those experienced by many during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, nationally, after a brief period of growth immediately after public health restrictions were put into place, the average monthly state TANF caseload declined during the pandemic. Using restricted-use, monthly, state-level data from 2017–2022, this study examined state TANF caseload patterns through a racial equity lens. Results from fixed effects regression models indicate differences across racial and ethnic groups. The pre-COVID caseload decline was most severe for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic recipients, and non-Hispanic Black recipients were the only group that did not experience statistically better coverage at the onset of the pandemic. Results indicate that declining caseload trends after the pandemic peak were less severe for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander recipients, but returned to pre-COVID trends for other groups. Further analyses that address missing data indicate that post-COVID declines were also less severe for Hispanic recipients. Implications to address racial equity in TANF administration and research are discussed.