Regional Collaborative Governance for Carbon Mitigation and Energy Sustainability: A Spatial Analysis of Drivers and Policy Differentiation Across City Clusters

Accurately identifying carbon reduction drivers based on regional variability is important for balancing different carbon reduction targets and advancing sustainable development. This paper first defines and quantifies carbon emission reduction capacity. It then combines cluster analysis and spatial modeling to analyze the drivers of carbon emission reduction capacity at different administrative levels. The results show that the mean values of carbon emission reduction capacity for the different plates, in descending order, are Plate II > Plate I > Plate III > Plate IV. The internal spatial relationships within the plates are relatively weak, while the synergies and spillover effects between the plates are more significant. Moreover, economic development has the largest positive impact on carbon emission reduction capacity in Shandong Province. Industrial structure has the largest effect on the carbon emission reduction capacities of Plates I, II, and III, with positive effects in Plates I and III but a negative effect in Plate II, while population size has the largest negative effect on the carbon emission reduction capacity of Plate IV. These findings could provide theoretical references and practical support for governments to formulate regionally differentiated carbon emission reduction policies and promote coordinated carbon emission reduction and high-quality regional development.