Contesting Influence and Geopolitics of Enlargement: Perceptions from the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood

There has been a shift in the EU’s stance on enlargement towards geopolitical logic and actorness. This article examines how local perceptions and expectations in Candidate Countries (CCs) are shaped by malign foreign influences and the ‘geopolitization’ of EU enlargement, including the interplay between control and protean powers in addressing challenges. Building on data from public opinion polls in these countries in 2021–2025 as well as focus groups with experts and public and interviews with officials, experts, and activists, we focus on local perceptions regarding risks, uncertainties, and external influences, particularly of a malign nature, that these countries are facing in the security, political, and socio-economic areas. In all nine CCs, malign external influences are perceived as originating if not directly from within the region then as closely connected to it. Russia is seen as the key malign external actor by the public and experts in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, accompanied and mimicked by Serbia in the Western Balkans (WB). Also, there are expectations regarding the EU and its role in resisting malign influences and advancing enlargement. A comparative analysis shows patterns that transcends regions, emphasizing the geopolitical nature of EU enlargement.