Food security, and vulnerability of Slovak households during the global crisis, 2022–2023

Abstract Slovakia experienced severe food price pressure from 2020 to 2023, placing substantial pressure on the economic access dimension of household food security, particularly among vulnerable households. This study aims to identify the socio-economic characteristics of households classified as belonging to the risk group. The risk group is defined as households in the top decile of the distribution of the ratio of expenditures on staples to disposable income, used as a proxy for food expenditure vulnerability. Using microdata from the Slovak Household Budget Survey (2020–2023), we employ the Categorical Boosting machine learning algorithm combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyse complex, non-linear predictors of vulnerability. The results show that the income burden of essential food consumption rose markedly over the studied period. Food expenditure vulnerability is primarily concentrated among groups with limited earning capacity, specifically single-parent households, families with multiple children, the unemployed, the disabled, pensioners, and tenants. Furthermore, the analysis highlights significant regional disparities, with households in rural areas and eastern Slovakia facing a disproportionately higher risk compared to the capital. Notably, during the peak inflation years (2022–2023), food expenditure vulnerability expanded beyond traditional risk groups, making socio-economic profiles less distinct. The main findings are robust to alternative vulnerability thresholds and are supported by comparison with a weighted logistic regression benchmark. Interaction effects indicate higher predicted risk when disadvantages accumulate, such as among rural households in the Prešov region. These findings suggest that while universal support measures are necessary during shocks, policymakers must develop targeted interventions focused on specific demographic profiles and structurally weaker regions to effectively mitigate the adverse effects of food inflation.