Digital Infrastructure and Manufacturing Supply Chain Capabilities: Evidence from China’s Pilot Cities

The reconfiguration of global value chains has raised concerns about the resilience and upgrading of manufacturing supply chains. This study examines whether digital infrastructure improves manufacturing supply chain capabilities, using the 2016 “Information for the People” pilot city program as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on panel data from Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2023, a difference-in-differences model is employed to identify the causal effect. The results show that digital infrastructure significantly enhances manufacturing supply chain capabilities, and this finding remains robust after multiple tests. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect differs across China’s eight economic regions and strengthens with longer policy implementation, showing regional and cumulative characteristics. Mechanism analysis suggests that innovation-oriented talent inflow is an important transmission channel. Further analysis shows that financial development positively moderates the impact of digital infrastructure by improving cities’ capacity to absorb and allocate digital and innovation resources. These findings suggest that policymakers should shift from uniform digital infrastructure investment to region-specific strategies that integrate talent attraction, financial support, and supply chain modernization.