Assessing Regional Disparities and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Smart Transportation Development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration

The continued implementation of the coordinated development strategy for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region has placed higher demands on regional transportation integration and smart transportation development. However, regional disparities in smart transportation development and their spatiotemporal evolution within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration have not yet been comprehensively investigated. This study focused on 13 cities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration during 2016–2023. A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to systematically examine regional disparities, spatiotemporal evolution, and the driving factors of smart transportation development. The results showed the following: (1) The overall level of smart transportation development increased steadily during the study period, exhibiting a hierarchical pattern featuring a leading core, differentiated levels of development, and persistent lagging areas. (2) Overall regional disparity declined from 0.147 to 0.137, indicating a gradual convergence trend. Inter-regional disparities remained the primary contributor to overall imbalance, accounting for up to 81.1%. (3) Smart transportation development demonstrated significant negative spatial autocorrelation. Although spatial dependence weakened over time, the interspersed distribution of high- and low-development cities remained largely unchanged. Moreover, smart transportation development exhibited strong path dependence and neighborhood effects, with limited upward mobility and stronger constraining effects from low-level neighboring areas than promoting effects from high-level neighbors. (4) Digital human capital, economic development, and R&D investment significantly promoted smart transportation development, whereas government support for science and technology and urbanization had not yet effectively generated development momentum. This study advances understanding of the disparities and evolutionary patterns in smart transportation development within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration and provides empirical evidence to inform the design of differentiated policies under the coordinated regional development strategy.