Asymmetry of Land Surface Temperature Response to Forest Gain and Loss: The Role of Land Cover Conversions

Abstract Recent studies reveal asymmetric land surface temperature (LST) responses to forest gain and loss, yet the role of underlying land cover conversions (LCC) remains unclear. Using three global land cover data sets (2001–2020), we quantify LST sensitivity to per unit forest loss and gain. Despite an overall warming caused by net forest cover loss, a consistent asymmetry emerges globally: the magnitude of LST sensitivity to forest loss (0.53°C) is nearly double that to forest gain (0.33°C) in the tropics, with a similar asymmetry in temperate and boreal regions after separating forest‐induced warming and cooling regions. This asymmetry arises from divergent LCC pathways between forest gain and loss, where forest loss often shifts to non‐forest land types (e.g., savanna/croplands), inducing greater LST changes than those reversed by equivalent forest gain (e.g., wetlands/grasslands). These demonstrate that LCC is an important driver of asymmetric LST responses, with key implications for forest‐based climate mitigation.