Hydroclimatic Variability and Water Balance Instability in Semi-Arid Steppe Ecosystems Under Climate Warming

This study investigates hydroclimatic variability and water balance dynamics in the Akmola region during 2003–2023 using observations from 16 meteorological stations. The study evaluates changes in air temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration (ET0), climatic water balance, and drought conditions. Reference evapotranspiration was calculated using the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method, while drought variability was assessed using the 12-month Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Temporal trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in hydroclimatic conditions across the region. Air temperature showed a consistent increasing trend at most stations, accompanied by increasing atmospheric evaporative demand. All stations were characterized by a persistently negative climatic water balance, with mean annual values of approximately −750 mm, indicating a regional moisture deficit. Reference evapotranspiration exhibited significant spatial variability, with the highest values observed in the southern and central parts of the region. Precipitation remained the dominant control of water balance variability (r = 0.79–0.96), while increasing temperature intensified moisture deficits through increased evapotranspiration. SPEI-12 indicated recurrent drought episodes and increasing drought vulnerability associated with warming-induced atmospheric water demand. The study demonstrates that increasing evapotranspiration is becoming a major driver of water stress in the Akmola region and highlights the importance of integrating climatic water balance and SPEI indicators for drought monitoring and climate adaptation in semi-arid steppe regions.