A study of rainfall-flood compound risk in Wuchang Historic City based on different climate scenarios

Climate change imperils historical architectural heritage through intensified urban flooding, particularly in ancient cities with limited flood-defence infrastructure. Utilizing CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs-RCPs), this study constructs a multi-factor coupled framework—integrating climate, land and heritage characteristics—to assess “rainstorm-flood” compound risks in Wuchang’s ancient city. The FLUS model identifies significant impacts of development pathways on blue-green-grey space structures, while MIKE-SHE simulations reveal pronounced spatial differentiation in floodwater depths across scenarios. Integrated analysis demonstrates that land cover types are fundamental in regulating compound flood risks relative to heritage distribution patterns. By elucidating the interplay between urban fabric and hydrological dynamics, this research provides a scientific foundation and practical guidance for safeguarding non-renewable cultural heritage and enhancing urban resilience under diverse climate futures.