The Cotton Crisis in Pakistan: Management Failures of Climate-Accelerated Whitefly ( <i>Bemisia tabaci</i> ) and Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCuV) Outbreaks in Punjab and Sindh Smallholder Agrosystems

Abstract Modern cotton production is reaching imposing ecological and policy limits in South Asia. During 2025–2026, the total cotton area of Pakistan shrank by around 12%, and the entire region shrank by a shocking 28%, resulting in a large trade deficit in the country. The core multi-stress dynamics of this agricultural contraction are assessed here using this case study. The negative feedback loop observed in our investigation was the effects of early-season extreme heat waves and erratic distributions of monsoons on the reproductive cycle of Bemisia tabaci (whitefly) and, thus, on the spread of cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV). This biotic pressure was aggravated by structural issues, such as the widespread use of uncertified and adulterated varieties not possessing Bt, and the emergence of fast insecticidal resistance due to smallholders’ use of chemical cocktails. Many smallholder farmers gave up on farming before the season even started due to rising input prices and falling field productivity. This is an educational case that integrates micro-level phytosanitary data into an analytical framework derived from macroeconomic indicators. This case assesses structural failures across extension services, imbalanced crop support, and market inefficiencies, equipping students and practitioners with tools to create integrated pest management (IPM) solutions and structural policy adjustments at the farm-gate level that will build resilience against climate change. Information © The Authors 2026