Trends, Shocks and Predictions in the Price Development of Food-Grade Wheat

Abstract Both farmers and end consumers are concerned with how wheat prices have evolved, the factors that have shaped them, and how they are likely to develop in the future, as this knowledge supports informed purchasing and selling decisions. This study examines the trends in food-grade wheat prices in the Czech Republic from January 2010 to November 2024 and provides a forecast for the period from December 2024 to December 2025. The analysis employs content analysis, linear regression, and neural network modeling. Content analysis revealed that the steepest increase in wheat prices occurred between 2021 and 2022, when the country was simultaneously recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and experiencing the impacts of the war in Ukraine. During this period, the wheat price reached 8,654 CZK/t, the highest value in the time series. Regression analysis indicates a gradual upward trend in wheat prices. The final stage of analysis, conducted using Statistica software, applies regression and forecasting with artificial neural networks, specifically multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) models. Ten of the best-performing networks are used for forecasting. For validation, actual price data from December 2024 to February 2025 are included. The MLP models approximate these values most closely, whereas the RBF models tend to underestimate them. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for financial decision-making—such as whether to purchase immediately or postpone buying – as well as practical guidance for farmers preparing for upcoming wheat price developments.