Cancer survival trends in Shandong Province, China (2016–2024): a population-based study

This study provides a comprehensive overview of long-term cancer survival in Shandong Province, China. We aimed to estimate the most recent survival rates among newly diagnosed cancer patients in Shandong during 2022–2024 and analyze temporal trends in survival from 2016 to 2024. A total of 391,843 newly diagnosed cancer cases from 20 population-based cancer registries in Shandong during 2016–2022 were included, with vital status follow-up extended through December 31, 2024. We calculated age-standardized 5-year relative survival (RS) for all cancers combined and for specific cancer types, stratified by sex, urban/rural residence, and age group. Survival estimates were derived using three analytic approaches: a cohort method for 2016–2018, a period analysis for 2019–2021, and a hybrid analysis for 2022–2024. The age-standardized 5-year RS for all cancers combined was 37.0% (95% CI: 36.8 ~ 37.3) in 2016–2018, 39.8% (95% CI: 39.5 ~ 40.1) in 2019–2021, and 44.2% (95% CI: 43.9 ~ 44.4) in 2022–2024. Across all three periods, age-standardized 5-year RS was lower in males than in females and higher in urban than in rural residents. In 2022–2024, cancers with favorable 5-year RS (> 70%) included thyroid, testicular, breast, bladder, and uterine cancers; those with poor survival (< 30%) included pancreatic, liver, gallbladder, esophageal cancers, and leukemia. From 2016 to 2024, 5-year RS improved for all cancer types except liver cancer (stable) and pancreatic cancer (declining). Survival declined consistently with advancing age. This study reports the latest 5-year relative survival of cancer in Shandong and documents a substantial improvement in survival from 2016 to 2024. These findings provide robust evidence to evaluate the effectiveness of cancer prevention and control interventions and to inform the refinement of regional cancer control strategies.